Recently in Oscars Category

Consistent with the overall downward trajectory of my Oscar-picking abilities, the accuracy of my predictions was pretty pathetic this year.

On the "Correct" side, we have:

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Director(s)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Animated Film
Best Score
Best Short Animated Film
Best Short Live Action Film
Best Cinematography
Best Original Song

On the "Wrong" side, there's:

Everything else, for an overall score of 11/24, or 46%.

My first sub-median performance.

I blame the French.

I was awakened at 4:30 this morning by a call from the 562 area code -- Los Angeles! I didn't answer the phone, but maybe it was someone from the Academy trying to get me down to the nomination ceremony at the last minute. Or maybe it was a devastated Kiera Knightley, who found out early that she wasn't getting the Best Actress nod I predicted and she needed some comforting. Or maybe it was Cate Blanchett looking to do some early celebrating since the buzz had her pegged for two nominations!

Or maybe it was a wrong number. At four-fucking-thirty in the morning. Grumble.

Anyway, it's time to see how I stacked up against reality.

For the uninitiated: In the late nineties and early part of the oughts, I annually hosted a lavish party for the Academy Awards, the centerpiece of which was a contest to predict the winners (I know; this is not terribly original, but it was fun). I traditionally have been quite accurate at picking winner and routinely scored in the 90% range (I have never had a perfect score) for both nominations and winners.

The arrival of Raymond and our subsequent relocation to the west coast combined to put an end to the festivities (honestly, who can party at 5:00 pm, which is when the show starts out here?), and over the last couple years, the allure of the show has faded at Chez Jim.

Last year, the Oscar nomination announcements sneaked up on me and I missed making predictions. The same thing would have happened this year had I not chanced upon a mention that Jon Stewart will be the host again (yeah!) if the ceremony isn't canceled by the writers' strike (boo!). The nominations will be announced tomorrow at 5:30 am.

Two years ago, I predicted an astonishing 86.7% of the major category nominations (see Oscar2006Nominations) but then tanked miserably on the awards themselves scoring just a hair over 62% (see Oscar2006Predictions).

The first part of 2007 was, for me, the "lost quarter" as I was teaching a class at the UW that seriously kicked my butt time-wise. As I mentioned, I skipped predictions for the nominations, but I managed to issue some half-hearted ones for the awards themselves, and I wasn't too surprised by another lackluster two-for-three showing for my minimal efforts (see Oscar2007Awards).

Once again, despite having a Master's Degree in Movies™, I find myself having seen very few of the likely nominations. Of the movies I saw this year, I predict only Juno and No Country for Old Men will be listed tomorrow. However, predicting an Oscar is only partially about the actual film or performance or costume or whatever. What's critical is the buzz.

So, relying almost solely on the opinions of others, here are my predictions for the major categories of the 2008 Oscar nominations (I'll tackle award winners later).

I did not fare so poorly in the Oscar predictions after all. I am still not up to my old standards, but hitting 16 out of 24 is nothing to sneeze at. I should have gone with my gut and selected Alan Arkin. I'm glad the Academy spared itself and the world the indignity of permitting DVD covers of the film "Norbit" from bearing the words: "Starring Academy Award winner Eddie Murphy."

I didn't watch the entire show as I had a class to prepare for, but from what I saw it looked like a pretty dull affair. I've never been a big fan of Ellen de Generes, though she managed some amusing zingers that forced me to crack a smile.

I did miss my favorite parts: the classic movie and the "dearly-departed" montages, both of which usually make me cry. I was especially interested to see if they'd include Anna Nicole Smith (which I hear they did not).

I'm reluctant to put this out there after my predictive abilities were proved so pathetic last year (and since I have seen exactly zero of the nominated films), but here they are ... my 2007 Oscar® predictions:

Tonight, I hang my head in shame. Like Penelope's suitors, I am punished for my hubris. The humble pie I eat tonight is both bitter and cold.

Fifteen and nine. Sixty-two-and-a-half per cent. Pathetic.

Since records have been kept, I have never missed more than 3 Academy Awards in a given year. I have never gotten Best Picture wrong.

Ladies and gentlemen, gentle readers, friends and family ... a defeated man blogs before you tonight.

But enough about me; let's talk about the show itself.

As I discussed in a couple previous posts, I have a pretty good track record for predicting Oscar winners. Plus, I have a Master's degree in film studies! I need to do something to justify my student loan payments.

There are no big races to speak of in the major categories, or even most of the minor ones. The only thing that's at all suspenseful about this year's Oscars is whether John Stewart is going to crash-and-burn like David Letterman. And Whoopi Goldberg. And Chris Rock.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2006 awards, coming up on Sunday, March 5 at 5:00 PST/8:00 EST.

The list of Academy Award nominees was released today. I didn't get up at 5:30 to watch the event. I can't handle Mira Sorvino in the morning.

So, let's see how I did with my Academy Award major category nomination predictions

Back in the day, Amy and I hosted some pretty damn lavish Academy Awards parties with fun prizes and statuettes for the guest who correctly guessed the most winners. For the 2004 show, I was en route to Seattle and stuck in a snowstorm in Wall, South Dakota. Our friends Sarah and Heather picked up the baton, however, and hosted the bash and the contest that year, and I nearly pulled off an upset victory by guessing nearly every award winner despite not having seen any of the nominated films (Heather, my arch-Oscar-nemesis won that year). I didn't even watch the show last year; probably because I really can't stand Chris Rock.

I probably will watch the Jon Stewart-hosted event this year, though I fear this is the kiss of death for the overexposed Daily Show host. Look what happened to Letterman.

The nominations are revealed tomorrow at 5:30 PST. I have never tried to predict the nominations before, but based mostly on that unquantifiable je ne sais pas called "buzz," I offer you my 2006 Oscar Nominee Predictions.